Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-30
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 6-2 | 8-4 | 100% | |
| T1 |  New MexicoUNM | 6-2 | 9-3 | 100% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 6-2 | 9-3 | - | |
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 6-2 | 10-2 | - | |
| T5 |  Fresno StateFRES | 5-3 | 8-4 | - | |
| T5 |  Hawai'iHAW | 5-3 | 8-4 | - | |
| 7 |  Utah StateUSU | 4-4 | 6-6 | - | |
| 8 |  Air ForceAF | 3-5 | 4-8 | - | |
| T9 |  NevadaNEV | 2-6 | 3-9 | - | |
| T9 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-6 | 3-9 | - | |
| T9 |  WyomingWYO | 2-6 | 4-8 | - | |
| 12 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-7 | 2-10 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-30
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-30
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 100% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 100% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - |
| San Diego StateSDSU | - | - |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - |
| UNLVUNLV | - | - |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-30
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(6-2) | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| New MexicoUNM(6-2) | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(6-2) | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| UNLVUNLV(6-2) | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| Fresno StateFRES(5-3) | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Hawai'iHAW(5-3) | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Utah StateUSU(4-4) | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| Air ForceAF(3-5) | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | 3.0 |
| NevadaNEV(2-6) | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 2.0 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-6) | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 2.0 |
| WyomingWYO(2-6) | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 2.0 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-7) | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | 1.0 |
Data from 2025-11-30