Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 6-0 | 9-1 | 99.7% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 5-0 | 7-3 | 36.9% | |
| 3 |  UNLVUNLV | 4-1 | 8-2 | 63.4% | |
| T4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T4 |  New MexicoUNM | 3-3 | 5-6 | - | |
| T4 |  San José StateSJSU | 3-3 | 6-4 | - | |
| T7 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-3 | 3-7 | - | |
| T7 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-3 | 3-7 | - | |
| T9 |  Hawai'iHAW | 2-4 | 4-7 | - | |
| T9 |  WyomingWYO | 2-4 | 2-8 | - | |
| 11 |  Air ForceAF | 1-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| 12 |  NevadaNEV | 0-5 | 3-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 99.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 99.5% (-0.1%) | 100.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.4%) | 99.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.4%) | 99.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.4%) | 95.0% (-4.7%) | |
| 99.5% (-0.2%) | 100.0% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 29.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 93.2%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Boise StateSan Diego StateSan José StateNevadaColorado StateData from 2024-11-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 95.0% | - | 99.7% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 84.6% | 27.6% | 63.4% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 37.1% | 1.6% | 36.9% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | - | - |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | - | - |
| San Diego StateSDSU | - | - | - | - |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | - | - |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(6-0) | 93.2% | 6.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| Colorado StateCSU(5-0) | 15.2% | 57.4% | 27.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| UNLVUNLV(4-1) | - | 63.6% | 34.8% | 1.6% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| Fresno StateFRES(3-3) | - | - | - | 76.1% | 23.8% | - | - | - | 3.8 |
| New MexicoUNM(3-3) | - | - | - | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | - | - | 3.6 |
| San José StateSJSU(3-3) | - | - | - | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | - | - | 3.3 |
| Utah StateUSU(2-3) | - | - | - | 22.8% | 53.5% | 23.8% | - | - | 3.0 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-3) | - | - | - | 15.0% | 47.5% | 37.5% | - | - | 2.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | - | 2.4 |
| Air ForceAF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 42.2% | 46.1% | 11.7% | - | 2.3 |
| WyomingWYO(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 6.9% | 93.2% | - | - | 2.1 |
| NevadaNEV(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 1.4% | 31.1% | 67.6% | 0.3 |
Data from 2024-11-17