Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
63.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W72-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W59-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W50-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W33-25 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L24-29 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W29-27 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W41-20 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 63.6% | 84.6% |
| 5-2 | 34.8% | 27.6% |
| 4-3 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 63.5% (+0.1%) | 63.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 23.2% (-40.2%) | 76.0% (+12.6%) | |
| 63.1% (-0.3%) | 63.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 63.4% (-0.0%) | 63.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 82.0% (+18.6%) | 26.3% (-37.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nevada
Fresno State
Utah State
Boise StateUNLVCCG: 97.2% • Scenario: 8.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Fresno StateUNLVCCG: 97.1% • Scenario: 50.6%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
84.6%
63.6%Any 1 loss
27.6%
34.8%
27.7%
31.8%27.0%
3.0%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17