American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-30
Conference Standings
| T1 |  NavyNAVY | 7-1 | 9-2 | 100% | |
| T1 |  North TexasUNT | 7-1 | 11-1 | 100% | |
| T1 |  TulaneTULN | 7-1 | 10-2 | - | |
| T4 |  East CarolinaECU | 6-2 | 8-4 | - | |
| T4 |  South FloridaUSF | 6-2 | 9-3 | - | |
| T6 |  ArmyARMY | 4-4 | 6-5 | - | |
| T6 |  MemphisMEM | 4-4 | 8-4 | - | |
| T6 |  UTSAUTSA | 4-4 | 6-6 | - | |
| T9 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 3-5 | 4-8 | - | |
| T9 |  TempleTEM | 3-5 | 5-7 | - | |
| T11 |  RiceRICE | 2-6 | 5-7 | - | |
| T11 |  UABUAB | 2-6 | 4-8 | - | |
| 13 |  TulsaTLSA | 1-7 | 4-8 | - | |
| 14 |  CharlotteCLT | 0-8 | 1-11 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-30
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-30
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 7-1 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NavyNAVY | 100% | 100% | - | 100% |
| North TexasUNT | - | - | 100% | 100% |
| ArmyARMY | - | - | - | - |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - |
| TulaneTULN | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-30
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NavyNAVY(7-1) | 47.2% | 52.8% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.5 |
| North TexasUNT(7-1) | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| TulaneTULN(7-1) | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| East CarolinaECU(6-2) | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| South FloridaUSF(6-2) | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| ArmyARMY(4-4) | - | - | - | - | 52.8% | 47.2% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| MemphisMEM(4-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| UTSAUTSA(4-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | - | 4.0 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(3-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | 3.0 |
| TempleTEM(3-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | - | 3.0 |
| RiceRICE(2-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | 2.0 |
| UABUAB(2-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | - | 2.0 |
| TulsaTLSA(1-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | - | 1.0 |
| CharlotteCLT(0-8) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | 0.0 |
Data from 2025-11-30