Big Ten Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	9-0	8-1	7-2	6-3	Overall
Ohio StateOSU	100%	98.2%	52.9%	4.0%	61.1%
OregonORE	99.9%	93.3%	38.3%	1.9%	49.8%
IndianaIU	99.9%	88.2%	32.4%	1.0%	40.1%
Penn StatePSU	99.5%	72.7%	15.3%	0.2%	14.7%
USCUSC	100%	97.9%	47.0%	2.1%	12.2%
MichiganMICH	100%	97.8%	42.1%	1.5%	10.4%
IowaIOWA	99.0%	81.2%	20.7%	0.4%	4.1%
WashingtonWASH	100%	92.0%	35.6%	1.0%	2.3%
WisconsinWIS	100%	71.5%	13.1%	<0.1%	1.8%
NebraskaNEB	100%	96.2%	37.3%	0.9%	1.3%
IllinoisILL	100%	82.3%	17.8%	0.2%	1.1%
UCLAUCLA	100%	80.8%	18.4%	0.2%	0.2%
MarylandMD	100%	90.6%	21.5%	0.4%	0.2%
Michigan StateMSU	100%	75.8%	19.1%	0.2%	0.2%
MinnesotaMINN	-	79.5%	22.4%	0.3%	0.1%
RutgersRUTG	-	88.9%	27.0%	0.3%	0.1%
PurduePUR	-	78.6%	19.7%	0.4%	0.1%
NorthwesternNU	-	100%	36.0%	1.7%	<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	9-0	8-1	7-2	6-3	5-4	4-5	3-6	2-7	1-8	0-9	Avg Wins
Ohio StateOSU(0-0)	12.3%	31.6%	32.2%	17.4%	5.3%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2
OregonORE(0-0)	8.7%	29.5%	34.4%	19.8%	6.3%	1.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.1
IndianaIU(0-0)	7.1%	24.9%	33.4%	23.1%	9.1%	2.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	6.9
Penn StatePSU(0-0)	2.2%	11.8%	25.2%	29.4%	20.1%	8.5%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	6.1
USCUSC(0-0)	0.4%	4.3%	14.9%	27.5%	28.1%	17.2%	6.2%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	5.4
MichiganMICH(0-0)	0.3%	3.6%	14.5%	28.4%	29.2%	17.0%	5.8%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	5.4
IowaIOWA(0-0)	0.2%	2.2%	9.7%	21.4%	28.1%	22.9%	11.5%	3.5%	0.6%	<0.1%	4.9
WisconsinWIS(0-0)	<0.1%	1.3%	6.1%	16.0%	26.0%	26.0%	16.5%	6.4%	1.4%	0.1%	4.5
WashingtonWASH(0-0)	<0.1%	0.7%	4.3%	13.5%	25.1%	28.1%	19.1%	7.6%	1.6%	0.1%	4.3
IllinoisILL(0-0)	<0.1%	0.5%	3.7%	12.9%	24.3%	28.2%	19.7%	8.4%	2.0%	0.2%	4.2
NebraskaNEB(0-0)	<0.1%	0.3%	2.5%	10.3%	21.9%	29.0%	22.7%	10.5%	2.5%	0.3%	4.0
UCLAUCLA(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.8%	4.3%	13.3%	25.0%	28.6%	19.4%	7.4%	1.2%	3.3
MarylandMD(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.7%	4.1%	12.7%	24.9%	28.8%	20.0%	7.7%	1.2%	3.3
Michigan StateMSU(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.7%	3.5%	11.3%	22.3%	28.3%	22.3%	9.8%	1.8%	3.1
MinnesotaMINN(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.4%	2.6%	9.3%	21.2%	29.2%	24.2%	10.9%	2.1%	3.0
PurduePUR(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.4%	2.3%	8.5%	20.1%	29.1%	25.2%	11.9%	2.5%	2.9
NorthwesternNU(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	1.4%	7.0%	19.0%	29.9%	27.0%	13.0%	2.6%	2.8
RutgersRUTG(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.3%	1.9%	7.2%	18.0%	28.2%	26.9%	14.4%	3.1%	2.7

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com