CCG Odds Explained
What a conference championship game is, how SportsSimulate calculates the odds, and what the terms mean
What is a conference championship game (CCG)?
A conference championship game is a single game most major college football conferences play after the regular season, matching the two teams (or division winners, in conferences still split into divisions) with the best conference records to decide that conference's champion - separate from, and in addition to, the College Football Playoff.
What does "CCG odds" or "CCG probability" mean?
It's the percentage chance a team reaches its conference championship game, estimated by simulating the rest of the season tens of thousands of times and counting how often that team ends up in the game. A team with 70% CCG odds reached the championship game in about 70 out of every 100 simulated versions of the remaining season.
How are CCG probabilities calculated?
SportsSimulate runs a Monte Carlo simulation: each remaining game's winner is drawn randomly according to a win-probability estimate for that matchup, conference standings (and tiebreakers, where needed) are computed for that simulated season, and this repeats tens of thousands of times. The CCG probability shown for a team is simply how often it reached the championship game across all of those simulated seasons.
What does it mean for a team to "control its own destiny"?
A team controls its own destiny when winning every one of its remaining games guarantees it a championship game berth, regardless of how any other team's games turn out. If a team needs certain other teams to lose - not just to win out itself - it does not control its own destiny; it needs help.
Why do CCG odds change from week to week?
Every result changes two things at once: it removes a game from the simulation (eliminating whatever uncertainty that game held) and it updates the ratings used to estimate every remaining game's win probability. Odds move most sharply late in the season, when fewer games remain to average out any single result.
What is a tiebreaker scenario?
When two or more teams finish a simulated season tied in the standings, a conference's published tiebreaker procedure (head-to-head record, common opponents, strength of schedule, and so on) decides which of them advances. See each conference's own Tiebreakers page for its exact procedure and current scenarios.
Why do some tiebreaker scenarios show as "uncertain"?
Some tiebreaker steps depend on things that cannot be known before the games are played - point differential in a game not yet finished, for example. When a tie could still resolve more than one way depending on those unknowable factors, SportsSimulate reports it as uncertain rather than forcing a single pick.