Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 3-0 | 4-3 | 77.8% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 3-0 | 5-2 | 57.9% | |
| T3 |  LibertyLIB | 3-1 | 5-1 | 51.5% | |
| T3 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 3-1 | 6-2 | 11.0% | |
| 5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0.7% | |
| 6 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-2 | 1-6 | 1.0% | |
| T7 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-3 | 2-5 | <0.1% | |
| 10 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 77.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 80.4% (+2.5%) | 77.4% (-0.5%) | |
| 77.7% (-0.1%) | 77.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 79.3% (+1.5%) | 77.3% (-0.5%) | |
| 94.8% (+17.0%) | 59.5% (-18.3%) | |
| 77.7% (-0.1%) | 77.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateUTEPLouisiana TechJacksonville StateNew Mexico StateCCG: 97.6% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 94.8% • Scenario: 51.9%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.9% | 49.3% | 3.5% | - | 77.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.9% | 48.6% | 5.9% | - | 57.9% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 100% | 73.9% | 3.9% | <0.1% | 51.5% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 98.2% | 34.9% | 1.7% | - | 11.0% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | - | 76.8% | 5.8% | - | 1.0% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | 88.4% | 5.8% | - | 0.7% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | 2.5% | - | <0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | 3.3% | - | <0.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | 1.3% | - | <0.1% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(3-0) | 21.6% | 42.4% | 27.7% | 7.5% | 0.8% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.8 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(3-0) | 6.7% | 30.0% | 41.4% | 18.4% | 3.3% | 0.2% | - | - | 6.2 |
| LibertyLIB(3-1) | - | 19.2% | 42.1% | 30.1% | 8.0% | 0.6% | - | - | 5.7 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(3-1) | - | 2.8% | 21.5% | 43.8% | 27.0% | 4.9% | - | - | 4.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 5.8% | 26.9% | 46.6% | 20.3% | - | 3.2 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-2) | - | - | 0.8% | 7.4% | 25.4% | 36.5% | 24.1% | 5.8% | 3.1 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 1.2% | 18.2% | 42.4% | 31.2% | 7.1% | 2.8 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 1.7% | 14.5% | 36.4% | 35.9% | 11.5% | 2.6 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 11.1% | 37.3% | 38.9% | 12.7% | 2.5 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.7% | 9.5% | 32.6% | 40.7% | 16.5% | 2.4 |
Data from 2024-10-27