LibertyFlames

5-1 T3rd (3-1) in CUSA

Data from 2024-10-27 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

51.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsCampbellCAM	W41-24
2	9/07	@New Mexico StateNMSU	W30-24
3	9/14	vsUTEPUTEP	W28-10
4	9/21	vsEast CarolinaECU	W35-24
5	9/28	@App StateAPP	Win prob:74%
7	10/08	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	W31-24
9	10/23	@Kennesaw StateKENN	L24-27
10	10/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:48%
11	11/09	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:90%
12	11/16	@MassachusettsMASS	Win prob:96%
13	11/23	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:68%
14	11/29	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:65%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	19.2%	100.0%
6-2	42.1%	73.9%
5-3	30.1%	3.9%
4-4	8.0%	0.0%
3-5	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.4%

30.9%

4.1%

0.4%

0.2%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Kennesaw StateKENN@Western KentuckyWKU	56.2% (+4.7%)	50.6% (-0.9%)
Middle TennesseeMTSU@UTEPUTEP	51.4% (-0.1%)	51.6% (+0.1%)
Louisiana TechLT@Sam HoustonSHSU	54.5% (+3.0%)	50.5% (-1.0%)
Jacksonville StateJXST@LibertyLIB	32.7% (-18.8%)	71.8% (+20.3%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@Florida InternationalFIU	51.5% (-0.0%)	51.5% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Kennesaw State

UTEP

Louisiana Tech

Liberty

Florida International

CCG: 78.7% • Scenario: 0.7%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Liberty

CCG: 71.8% • Scenario: 48.0%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

13.6%

Any 1 loss

77.8%

35.2%

100.0%

4.7%

100.0%

0.6%

99.5%

1.5%

77.4%

14.7%

72.9%

7.4%

60.5%

6.2%

Any 2 losses

29.4%

33.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

99.6%

0.5%

78.1%

0.7%

77.7%

5.1%

73.6%

2.6%

71.9%

0.4%

60.2%

2.3%

56.2%

0.3%

20.4%

1.6%

8.2%

0.7%

4.6%

0.8%

3.5%

8.0%

1.3%

3.3%

0.8%

6.7%

Any 3 losses

8.3%

8.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

78.5%

0.2%

72.5%

0.1%

61.8%

0.1%

30.2%

<0.1%

21.2%

0.6%

8.0%

0.3%

7.4%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

5.5%

0.3%

4.1%

2.8%

2.2%

0.4%

1.8%

0.2%

1.0%

1.2%

0.6%

2.4%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com