Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
57.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | W31-14 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:84% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:32% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 30.0% | 99.9% |
| 6-2 | 41.4% | 48.6% |
| 5-3 | 18.4% | 5.9% |
| 4-4 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% (-19.1%) | 61.5% (+3.6%) | |
| 57.9% (-0.0%) | 57.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.7% (+0.8%) | 57.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 60.3% (+2.4%) | 55.3% (-2.6%) | |
| 57.9% (+0.0%) | 57.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Western Kentucky
UTEP
Louisiana Tech
Jacksonville State
New Mexico StateCCG: 67.1% • Scenario: 2.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 61.5% • Scenario: 84.2%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.7%Any 1 loss
99.9%
30.0%
100.0%
14.6%100.0%
1.4%
100.0%
1.3%100.0%
1.4%99.7%
11.4%Any 2 losses
48.6%
41.5%100.0%
0.3%98.7%
0.2%96.5%
0.3%94.0%
2.3%93.2%
2.5%90.5%
2.1%76.1%
3.0%74.0%
3.1%72.2%
2.8%25.6%
24.9%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27