Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W47-16 | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 29.5% | 97.2% |
| 6-2 | 53.0% | 19.1% |
| 5-3 | 16.0% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.6% (-0.3%) | 39.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 37.0% (-1.9%) | 43.9% (+5.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Akron
Eastern MichiganCCG: 44.1% • Scenario: 10.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganCCG: 43.9% • Scenario: 27.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.2%
29.5%Any 1 loss
19.0%
53.0%31.6%
6.2%
24.9%
1.4%
17.6%
2.5%
17.1%
42.8%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27