Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Western MichiganWMU | 4-0 | 5-3 | 27.2% | |
| T2 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 3-1 | 4-4 | 61.1% | |
| T2 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 3-1 | 4-4 | 42.3% | |
| T2 |  OhioOHIO | 3-1 | 5-3 | 38.9% | |
| T5 |  ToledoTOL | 2-2 | 5-3 | 25.0% | |
| T5 |  BuffaloBUF | 2-2 | 4-4 | 4.8% | |
| T5 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 2-2 | 5-3 | 0.6% | |
| T5 |  Ball StateBALL | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0.1% | |
| T9 |  AkronAKR | 1-3 | 2-6 | - | |
| T9 |  Central MichiganCMU | 1-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| 12 |  Kent StateKENT | 0-4 | 0-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 61.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 60.2% (-1.0%) | 62.8% (+1.7%) | |
| 58.7% (-2.5%) | 67.6% (+6.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
AkronEastern MichiganCCG: 69.5% • Scenario: 10.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Eastern MichiganCCG: 67.6% • Scenario: 27.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH | - | 100% | 49.8% | 0.4% | 61.1% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | - | 100% | 39.9% | 0.3% | 42.3% |
| OhioOHIO | - | 97.2% | 19.1% | 0.6% | 38.9% |
| Western MichiganWMU | 100% | 86.4% | 14.3% | 0.1% | 27.2% |
| ToledoTOL | - | - | 71.0% | 1.1% | 25.0% |
| BuffaloBUF | - | - | 31.9% | 0.1% | 4.8% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | - | - | 49.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | - | - | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ball StateBALL | - | - | 84.2% | 1.9% | <0.1% |
| AkronAKR | - | - | - | 0.5% | - |
| Central MichiganCMU | - | - | - | 5.6% | - |
| Kent StateKENT | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH(3-1) | - | 38.1% | 46.0% | 14.7% | 1.1% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| OhioOHIO(3-1) | - | 29.5% | 53.0% | 16.0% | 1.4% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(3-1) | - | 23.2% | 47.7% | 24.1% | 4.6% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Western MichiganWMU(4-0) | 3.1% | 21.0% | 40.8% | 28.6% | 6.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| ToledoTOL(2-2) | - | - | 34.5% | 45.2% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 0.1% | - | - | 5.1 |
| BuffaloBUF(2-2) | - | - | 14.7% | 42.0% | 33.4% | 9.1% | 0.7% | - | - | 4.6 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 15.2% | 50.7% | 29.7% | 4.2% | 0.2% | - | 3.8 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(2-2) | - | - | 1.2% | 11.1% | 34.4% | 39.8% | 13.5% | - | - | 3.5 |
| Ball StateBALL(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.9% | 8.8% | 38.2% | 52.0% | - | - | 2.6 |
| AkronAKR(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.2% | 4.6% | 29.8% | 48.4% | 16.9% | - | 2.2 |
| Central MichiganCMU(1-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.2% | 11.3% | 41.4% | 46.0% | - | 1.7 |
| Kent StateKENT(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.2% | 37.4% | 57.2% | 0.5 |
Data from 2024-10-27