Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L15-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-6 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L26-41 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 34.5% | 71.0% |
| 5-3 | 45.2% | 1.1% |
| 4-4 | 17.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.2% (+0.2%) | 24.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 34.3% (+9.3%) | 0.9% (-24.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BuffaloToledoCCG: 34.5% • Scenario: 45.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 34.3% • Scenario: 72.2%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
71.0%
34.5%Any 1 loss
1.9%
21.3%
2.0%
13.5%
1.9%
3.3%
1.8%
4.5%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27