Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
56.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W72-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W59-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W50-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W33-25 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L24-29 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:90% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 50.5% | 96.0% |
| 5-2 | 40.2% | 21.0% |
| 4-3 | 8.6% | 0.1% |
| 3-4 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 71.5% (+14.6%) | 55.3% (-1.6%) | |
| 57.0% (+0.0%) | 56.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 52.5% (-4.4%) | 62.8% (+5.9%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.3%) | 57.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 59.6% (+2.7%) | 56.7% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'i
Wyoming
Nevada
Air Force
Boise StateCCG: 84.5% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 62.8% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.0%
50.5%Any 1 loss
21.0%
40.2%26.7%
2.6%24.2%
5.6%
21.1%
25.9%
15.2%
6.1%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27