Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 132 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	2.9%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 97.7% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 2.3%	2.8%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 99.6%	1.7%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 92.9% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 7.1%	1.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 67.7% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 32.3%	1.6%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 97.2% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 2.9%	1.0%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.9%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 97.7% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 2.3%	0.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 96.0% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 4.0%	0.5%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.5%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 66.5% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 32.4% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 1.1%	0.5%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 97.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 2.5%	0.4%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES	0.3%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 79.3% Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU 20.6%	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 62.3% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 37.7%	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 56.6% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 43.4%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 54.1% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 45.9%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 98.8% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 1.2%	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 95.9% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 4.1%	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU 8-1 UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 85.1% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 14.9%	0.2%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 64.2% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 35.8%	0.2%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU 67.3% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 32.7%	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 90.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 10.0%	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 89.5% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 10.5%	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 51.8% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 40.3% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 7.9%	0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 63.2% Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU 36.8%	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 87.1% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 13.0%	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 85.4% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 14.6%	0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 85.4% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 14.6%	0.1%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 44.0% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 41.8% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 14.2%	0.1%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 8-1 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 51.3% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 48.7%	0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU	0.1%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 68.3% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 31.7%	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES New MexicoUNM UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 95.9% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 4.1%	0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain San José StateSJSUUNLVUNLV 72.2% Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU 17.8% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 10.0%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 56.2% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 41.6% Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU 2.3%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 82.4% Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU 17.6%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 94.9% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 5.1%	<0.1%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 64.7% San Diego StateSDSUUNLVUNLV 25.9% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 9.4%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 69.2% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 28.2% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 2.6%	<0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 49.4% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 39.0% Fresno StateFRESSan Diego StateSDSU 11.7%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU 79.5% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 11.0% Colorado StateCSUFresno StateFRES 9.6%	<0.1%
8-1 Fresno StateFRES 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 89.0% Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU 11.0%	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.