ArmyBlack Knights

7-0 T1st (6-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-27 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

73.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	W37-14
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	W42-14
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	W49-7
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	W44-10
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	W45-28
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:91%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:68%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:8%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:87%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:62%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	36.5%	100.0%
8-1	45.3%	69.8%
7-2	16.6%	33.9%
6-3	1.6%	1.4%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

63.0%

28.2%

8.7%

0.0%

0.0%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
NavyNAVY@RiceRICE	71.1% (-2.7%)	86.6% (+12.9%)
TulaneTULN@CharlotteCLT	73.0% (-0.7%)	84.2% (+10.5%)
MemphisMEM@UTSAUTSA	72.2% (-1.5%)	77.6% (+3.9%)
TulsaTLSA@UABUAB	73.8% (+0.0%)	73.7% (-0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Florida AtlanticFAU	73.8% (+0.1%)	73.7% (-0.1%)
Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY	74.1% (+0.4%)	73.7% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rice

Charlotte

Memphis

Florida Atlantic

Air Force

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Rice

CCG: 86.6% • Scenario: 17.2%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.7%

Any 1 loss

97.1%

34.2%

100.0%

1.7%

100.0%

30.6%

100.0%

0.3%

44.3%

0.4%

40.9%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

70.8%

42.6%

100.0%

18.9%

100.0%

2.9%

100.0%

0.2%

53.9%

0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

40.1%

0.7%

40.0%

14.5%

39.9%

4.8%

36.4%

0.3%

1.5%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

40.8%

17.6%

100.0%

1.7%

40.1%

8.9%

39.5%

1.3%

39.4%

2.9%

39.1%

<0.1%

39.0%

0.4%

28.8%

<0.1%

3.4%

0.1%

2.3%

2.2%

Any 4 losses

16.8%

2.7%

39.4%

0.8%

38.5%

0.3%

2.0%

0.2%

1.1%

1.4%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com