Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 3-0 | 6-1 | 86.6% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 3-0 | 5-3 | 12.0% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-0 | 3-4 | 5.0% | |
| 4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 3-1 | 5-3 | 37.6% | |
| 5 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-1 | 6-2 | 56.9% | |
| 6 |  San José StateSJSU | 3-2 | 5-3 | 1.8% | |
| 7 |  New MexicoUNM | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| 8 |  Hawai'iHAW | 1-2 | 3-5 | 0.1% | |
| T9 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-3 | 2-6 | - | |
| T9 |  WyomingWYO | 1-3 | 1-7 | - | |
| T11 |  Air ForceAF | 0-4 | 1-6 | - | |
| T11 |  NevadaNEV | 0-3 | 3-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 86.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 94.7% (+8.1%) | 85.7% (-0.9%) | |
| 89.1% (+2.5%) | 84.5% (-2.1%) | |
| 85.0% (-1.7%) | 88.8% (+2.2%) | |
| 86.3% (-0.3%) | 86.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.4% (-37.2%) | 90.0% (+3.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'iWyomingNevada
ArmyBoise StateCCG: 98.5% • Scenario: 1.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 90.0% • Scenario: 91.6%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 79.9% | 10.2% | - | 86.6% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 96.0% | 21.0% | 0.1% | 56.9% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 60.8% | 4.4% | - | 37.6% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 26.5% | 0.4% | - | 12.0% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 67.8% | 1.9% | - | 5.0% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 19.3% | - | 1.8% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | 45.9% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | 0.3% | - | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - | - |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(3-0) | 57.3% | 35.9% | 6.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| Fresno StateFRES(3-1) | - | 59.3% | 34.2% | 6.1% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-1) | - | 50.5% | 40.2% | 8.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.4 |
| Colorado StateCSU(3-0) | 4.0% | 29.5% | 42.0% | 21.1% | 3.4% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-0) | 0.3% | 6.0% | 33.5% | 40.0% | 17.7% | 2.6% | - | - | 4.2 |
| San José StateSJSU(3-2) | - | - | 9.3% | 43.1% | 47.6% | - | - | - | 3.6 |
| New MexicoUNM(2-2) | - | - | 7.2% | 32.4% | 42.9% | 17.4% | - | - | 3.3 |
| Hawai'iHAW(1-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 5.2% | 30.9% | 44.8% | 18.9% | - | 2.2 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 4.2% | 25.4% | 45.9% | 24.6% | - | 2.1 |
| WyomingWYO(1-3) | - | - | - | 1.7% | 20.2% | 47.3% | 30.9% | - | 1.9 |
| Air ForceAF(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 4.3% | 25.6% | 46.6% | 23.4% | 1.1 |
| NevadaNEV(0-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.7% | 21.9% | 47.8% | 28.5% | 1.0 |
Data from 2024-10-27