Mountain West Conference

Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10

Mountain West ConferenceConference Standings

T1Boise StBOIS5-08-198.4%
T1Colorado StCSU4-06-336.9%
3UNLVUNLV3-17-259.7%
4San Jose StSJSU3-26-34.1%
T5Fresno StFRES3-35-5-
T5New MexicoUNM3-34-6-
T5San Diego StSDSU2-23-60.9%
T8WyomingWYO2-32-7<0.1%
T8HawaiiHAW2-34-6-
10Utah StUSU1-32-7<0.1%
11Air ForceAF1-42-7-
12NevadaNEV0-53-8-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mountain West Conference CCG Matchups

158.7%
Boise StBOIS
vs
UNLVUNLV
235.4%
Boise StBOIS
vs
CSUColorado St
33.4%
Boise StBOIS
vs
SJSUSan Jose St
40.9%
Boise StBOIS
vs
SDSUSan Diego St
50.9%
Colorado StCSU
vs
UNLVUNLV
60.6%
Colorado StCSU
vs
SJSUSan Jose St
7<0.1%
San Jose StSJSU
vs
UNLVUNLV
8<0.1%
Boise StBOIS
vs
USUUtah St
9<0.1%
Boise StBOIS
vs
WYOWyoming
10-
San Diego StSDSU
vs
SJSUSan Jose St

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Mountain West ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mountain West Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 98.4%
Game
Boise StCCG OddsAway
Boise StCCG OddsHome
WyomingWYO@Colorado StCSU
99.5%
(+1.1%)		97.9%
(-0.5%)
Washington StWSU@New MexicoUNM
98.5%
(+0.0%)		98.3%
(-0.1%)
HawaiiHAW@Utah StUSU
98.6%
(+0.1%)		98.3%
(-0.2%)
Oregon StORST@Air ForceAF
98.4%
(+0.0%)		98.4%
(-0.0%)
San Diego StSDSU@UNLVUNLV
99.4%
(+0.9%)		98.3%
(-0.1%)
Boise StBOIS@San Jose StSJSU
100.0%
(+1.5%)		94.4%
(-4.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Boise St

WyomingWyomingBoise StBoise State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 24.7%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Boise St

Boise StBoise State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 72.4%

Ways for Boise St to Clinch Mountain West Conference CCG Spot This Week

HawaiiHawai'iBoise StBoise State
40.6%
WyomingWyomingBoise StBoise State
24.7%
San Diego StSan Diego StateBoise StBoise State
6.4%
WyomingWyomingWashington StWashington StateUtah StUtah StateOregon StOregon StateSan Diego StSan Diego State
0.7%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Mountain West ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team7-06-15-24-3Overall
Boise StBOIS100%99.6%40.3%-98.4%
UNLVUNLV-89.4%30.2%1.0%59.7%
Colorado StCSU100%48.8%4.5%-36.9%
San Jose StSJSU--37.2%0.1%4.1%
San Diego StSDSU--27.9%0.1%0.9%
Utah StUSU---0.6%<0.1%
WyomingWYO---0.2%<0.1%
Air ForceAF-----
Fresno StFRES-----
HawaiiHAW-----
NevadaNEV-----
New MexicoUNM-----

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Mountain West ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team7-06-15-24-33-42-51-60-7Avg Wins
Boise StBOIS(5-0)65.8%31.8%2.4%-----6.6
Colorado StCSU(4-0)11.1%49.7%33.5%5.7%----5.7
UNLVUNLV(3-1)-52.6%41.9%5.4%0.2%---5.5
Fresno StFRES(3-3)---78.3%21.6%---3.8
San Jose StSJSU(3-2)--10.8%45.3%43.9%---3.7
New MexicoUNM(3-3)---41.9%58.1%---3.4
San Diego StSDSU(2-2)--3.0%34.8%46.2%16.1%--3.2
HawaiiHAW(2-3)---32.5%49.2%18.3%--3.1
WyomingWYO(2-3)---3.1%36.8%60.0%--2.4
Utah StUSU(1-3)---3.6%24.1%45.4%26.8%-2.0
Air ForceAF(1-4)----26.4%51.1%22.5%-2.0
NevadaNEV(0-5)-----2.1%41.7%56.2%0.5

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com