Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
59.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W72-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W59-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W50-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W33-25 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L24-29 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W29-27 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:61% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 52.6% | 89.4% |
| 5-2 | 41.9% | 30.2% |
| 4-3 | 5.4% | 1.0% |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 78.5% (+18.8%) | 50.0% (-9.7%) | |
| 59.6% (-0.0%) | 59.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 59.8% (+0.1%) | 59.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 59.9% (+0.3%) | 59.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 17.1% (-42.6%) | 63.8% (+4.2%) | |
| 62.7% (+3.0%) | 51.8% (-7.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Wyoming
New Mexico
Hawai'i
Oregon StateUNLV
Boise StateCCG: 91.8% • Scenario: 1.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingUNLVCCG: 82.7% • Scenario: 31.0%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
89.4%
52.6%Any 1 loss
30.2%
41.9%
39.3%
2.8%
29.6%
34.0%
29.2%
5.1%Any 2 losses
1.0%
5.4%1.6%
1.8%1.1%
0.3%0.6%
3.3%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10