Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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31 of 31 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	17.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	8.8%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 98.6% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 1.4%	8.4%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU 8-1 UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	3.8%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 86.1% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 13.9%	2.8%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 8-1 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	1.8%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 99.4%	1.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	0.5%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 98.9% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 1.1%	0.4%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	0.4%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 71.1% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 28.9%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	0.3%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 64.5% San José StateSJSUUNLVUNLV 28.3% Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU 7.2%	0.3%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.3%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 58.2% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 41.8%	0.2%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 99.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 1.1%	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 94.5% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 3.6% Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU 1.8%	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 73.2% Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU 26.8%	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	<0.1%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 60.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 40.0%	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 58.3% San Diego StateSDSUSan José StateSJSU 25.0% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 16.7%	<0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 60.0% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 40.0%	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.