Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-17

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE8-011-096.6%
T1IndianaIU7-010-019.2%
T3Ohio StOSU6-19-173.3%
T3Penn StPSU6-19-110.9%
T5IllinoisILL4-37-3-
T5IowaIOWA4-36-4-
T5MinnesotaMINN4-36-4-
8WashingtonWASH4-46-5-
T9MichiganMICH3-45-5-
T9RutgersRUTG3-46-4-
T9WisconsinWIS3-45-5-
T12UCLAUCLA3-54-6-
T12USCUSC3-55-5-
T14Michigan StMSU2-54-6-
T14NebraskaNEB2-55-5-
T14NorthwesternNU2-54-6-
17MarylandMD1-64-6-
18PurduePUR0-71-9-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

169.9%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
219.2%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
37.5%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
43.4%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 96.6%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
PurduePUR@Michigan StMSU
95.5%
(-1.1%)		96.9%
(+0.3%)
USCUSC@UCLAUCLA
96.2%
(-0.4%)		98.3%
(+1.7%)
WisconsinWIS@NebraskaNEB
96.5%
(-0.1%)		96.8%
(+0.1%)
Penn StPSU@MinnesotaMINN
96.1%
(-0.5%)		100.0%
(+3.4%)
NorthwesternNU@MichiganMICH
95.2%
(-1.4%)		96.8%
(+0.2%)
IllinoisILL@RutgersRUTG
96.5%
(-0.1%)		96.8%
(+0.2%)
IowaIOWA@MarylandMD
96.6%
(-0.0%)		96.7%
(+0.1%)
IndianaIU@Ohio StOSU
100.0%
(+3.4%)		95.9%
(-0.7%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

MinnesotaMinnesota

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 12.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

IndianaIndiana

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 17.8%

Ways for Oregon to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

IndianaIndiana
17.8%
MinnesotaMinnesota
12.1%

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
OregonORE100%56.6%-96.6%
Ohio StOSU-100%<0.1%73.3%
IndianaIU100%2.0%-19.2%
Penn StPSU-12.8%-10.9%
IllinoisILL----
IowaIOWA----
MarylandMD----
MichiganMICH----
Michigan StMSU----
MinnesotaMINN----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
USCUSC----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(8-0)92.2%7.8%--------8.9
IndianaIU(7-0)17.6%81.5%1.0%-------8.2
Penn StPSU(6-1)-85.0%14.6%0.4%------7.8
Ohio StOSU(6-1)-73.3%24.8%2.0%------7.7
IowaIOWA(4-3)---74.5%23.8%1.7%----5.7
IllinoisILL(4-3)---38.6%47.2%14.2%----5.2
MinnesotaMINN(4-3)---3.9%36.7%59.4%----4.4
WisconsinWIS(3-4)----47.0%43.2%9.8%---4.4
WashingtonWASH(4-4)----7.8%92.2%----4.1
MichiganMICH(3-4)----9.6%79.7%10.8%---4.0
RutgersRUTG(3-4)----23.3%51.3%25.4%---4.0
USCUSC(3-5)-----79.7%20.3%---3.8
Michigan StMSU(2-5)-----34.5%54.3%11.2%--3.2
UCLAUCLA(3-5)-----20.3%79.7%---3.2
NorthwesternNU(2-5)-----4.3%38.5%57.2%--2.5
NebraskaNEB(2-5)-----3.1%34.3%62.6%--2.4
MarylandMD(1-6)------0.5%19.4%80.1%-1.2
PurduePUR(0-7)-------0.2%20.1%79.7%0.2

Data from 2024-11-17 • SportsSimulate.com