Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-24

Big TenConference Standings

1OregonORE8-011-095.1%
T2Ohio StOSU7-110-185.6%
T2Penn StPSU7-110-118.8%
T2IndianaIU7-110-10.5%
T5IllinoisILL5-38-3-
T5IowaIOWA5-37-4-
T7MichiganMICH4-46-5-
T7MinnesotaMINN4-46-5-
T7WashingtonWASH4-46-5-
10USCUSC4-56-5-
T11Michigan StMSU3-55-6-
T11NebraskaNEB3-56-5-
T11RutgersRUTG3-56-5-
T11WisconsinWIS3-55-6-
15UCLAUCLA3-64-7-
16NorthwesternNU2-64-7-
17MarylandMD1-74-7-
18PurduePUR0-81-10-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

180.7%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
214.0%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
34.9%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
40.5%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon

Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14

Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 95.1%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
PurduePUR@IndianaIU
95.5%
(+0.3%)		95.1%
(+0.0%)
MinnesotaMINN@WisconsinWIS
93.7%
(-1.5%)		96.3%
(+1.2%)
RutgersRUTG@Michigan StMSU
93.6%
(-1.6%)		97.3%
(+2.1%)
MichiganMICH@Ohio StOSU
100.0%
(+4.9%)		94.3%
(-0.8%)
Notre DameND@USCUSC
95.1%
(-0.0%)		95.2%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@UCLAUCLA
95.1%
(+0.0%)		95.1%
(+0.0%)
WashingtonWASH@OregonORE
36.8%
(-58.3%)		100.0%
(+4.9%)
NebraskaNEB@IowaIOWA
95.0%
(-0.1%)		95.2%
(+0.0%)
IllinoisILL@NorthwesternNU
95.2%
(+0.0%)		95.1%
(-0.0%)
MarylandMD@Penn StPSU
100.0%
(+4.9%)		95.0%
(-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

MichiganMichigan

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 14.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregon

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 92.3%

Ways for Oregon to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

OregonOregon
92.3%
WisconsinWisconsinMichigan StMichigan State
24.1%
MichiganMichigan
14.4%
MarylandMaryland
3.5%

Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
OregonORE100%36.8%-95.1%
Ohio StOSU-100%<0.1%85.6%
Penn StPSU-19.5%-18.8%
IndianaIU-0.5%-0.5%
IllinoisILL----
IowaIOWA----
MarylandMD----
MichiganMICH----
Michigan StMSU----
MinnesotaMINN----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
USCUSC----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(8-0)92.3%7.7%--------8.9
IndianaIU(7-1)-98.5%1.5%-------8.0
Penn StPSU(7-1)-96.6%3.5%-------8.0
Ohio StOSU(7-1)-85.6%14.4%-------7.9
IowaIOWA(5-3)---86.2%13.8%-----5.9
IllinoisILL(5-3)---76.0%24.0%-----5.8
MinnesotaMINN(4-4)----43.9%56.1%----4.4
MichiganMICH(4-4)----14.4%85.6%----4.1
WashingtonWASH(4-4)----7.7%92.3%----4.1
USCUSC(4-5)-----100%----4.0
RutgersRUTG(3-5)-----57.1%42.9%---3.6
WisconsinWIS(3-5)-----56.1%43.9%---3.6
Michigan StMSU(3-5)-----42.9%57.1%---3.4
NebraskaNEB(3-5)-----13.8%86.2%---3.1
UCLAUCLA(3-6)------100%---3.0
NorthwesternNU(2-6)------24.0%76.0%--2.2
MarylandMD(1-7)-------3.5%96.6%-1.0
PurduePUR(0-8)--------1.5%98.5%0.0

Data from 2024-11-24 • SportsSimulate.com