Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-24
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 6-1 | 9-2 | 42.4% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 6-1 | 8-3 | 6.8% | |
| T3 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 5-2 | 7-4 | 62.2% | |
| T3 |  South AlabamaUSA | 5-2 | 6-5 | 54.2% | |
| T3 |  Arkansas StateARST | 5-2 | 7-4 | - | |
| T6 |  Texas StateTXST | 4-3 | 6-5 | 3.5% | |
| T6 |  James MadisonJMU | 4-3 | 8-3 | - | |
| T8 |  App StateAPP | 3-4 | 5-5 | 31.0% | |
| T8 |  Old DominionODU | 3-4 | 4-7 | - | |
| T8 |  UL MonroeULM | 3-4 | 5-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 2-5 | 5-6 | - | |
| T11 |  TroyTROY | 2-5 | 3-8 | - | |
| 13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 1-6 | 3-8 | - | |
| 14 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-7 | 1-10 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-24
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-24
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-24
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 62.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.1% (-1.1%) | 62.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.2% (+0.0%) | 62.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-62.2%) | 100.0% (+37.8%) | |
| 62.8% (+0.6%) | 62.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.1% (-0.1%) | 62.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 62.1% (-0.1%) | 62.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 62.2% (+0.0%) | 62.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 62.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Georgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 62.2%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Georgia SouthernData from 2024-11-24
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 100% | - | - | 62.2% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | 100% | - | - | 54.2% |
| LouisianaUL | 45.8% | - | - | - | 42.4% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | 82.0% | 31.0% |
| MarshallMRSH | 37.2% | - | - | - | 6.8% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | 7.6% | - | 3.5% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - | - |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - |
| James MadisonJMU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | - | - | - |
| TroyTROY | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-24
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL(6-1) | 92.5% | 7.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| MarshallMRSH(6-1) | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(5-2) | - | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| South AlabamaUSA(5-2) | - | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(5-2) | - | 26.5% | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| James MadisonJMU(4-3) | - | - | 81.7% | 18.3% | - | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| Texas StateTXST(4-3) | - | - | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| Old DominionODU(3-4) | - | - | - | 73.5% | 26.5% | - | - | - | 3.7 |
| App StateAPP(3-4) | - | - | - | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | - | - | 3.4 |
| UL MonroeULM(3-4) | - | - | - | 7.4% | 92.5% | - | - | - | 3.1 |
| TroyTROY(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 95.3% | 4.8% | - | - | 3.0 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | - | 2.5 |
| Georgia StateGAST(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | 1.5 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4.8% | 95.3% | 0.0 |
Data from 2024-11-24