Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-06
Conference Standings
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-0 | 4-1 | 47.5% | |
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 1-0 | 4-1 | 70.3% | |
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 1-0 | 4-1 | 62.5% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 1-0 | 2-3 | 2.6% | |
| T1 |  WyomingWYO | 1-0 | 1-4 | 2.3% | |
| 6 |  Fresno StateFRES | 1-1 | 3-2 | 13.6% | |
| T7 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0.7% | |
| T7 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T7 |  Air ForceAF | 0-2 | 1-4 | 0.1% | |
| T7 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-1 | 2-3 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  NevadaNEV | 0-1 | 2-4 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 70.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% (-0.5%) | 71.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 71.9% (+1.7%) | 47.0% (-23.2%) | |
| 71.8% (+1.5%) | 68.7% (-1.5%) | |
| 70.4% (+0.1%) | 70.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 70.3% (+0.0%) | 70.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 69.5% (-0.7%) | 74.3% (+4.0%) | |
| 69.8% (-0.5%) | 76.5% (+6.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New MexicoUtah StateNevadaColorado StateHawai'iCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 71.9% • Scenario: 93.3%
Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 97.1% | 27.3% | 0.3% | 70.3% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 87.5% | 16.2% | 0.2% | 62.5% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 97.4% | 31.2% | 0.2% | 47.5% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 62.6% | 4.6% | <0.1% | 13.6% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 68.9% | 3.8% | <0.1% | 2.6% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 66.8% | 6.2% | <0.1% | 2.3% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 47.9% | 2.3% | - | 0.7% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 29.8% | 0.6% | - | 0.2% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | 3.6% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 88.9% | 17.6% | - | <0.1% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | 72.7% | 4.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | 20.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(1-0) | 20.5% | 43.1% | 28.7% | 6.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 5.8 |
| Boise StateBOIS(1-0) | 20.0% | 43.2% | 29.3% | 6.8% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 5.7 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-0) | 7.6% | 28.6% | 38.3% | 21.1% | 4.1% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.1 |
| Fresno StateFRES(1-1) | - | 18.8% | 41.0% | 30.0% | 8.9% | 1.2% | <0.1% | - | 4.7 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(1-0) | 0.1% | 2.6% | 17.9% | 35.8% | 30.3% | 11.7% | 1.6% | - | 3.6 |
| WyomingWYO(1-0) | 0.1% | 2.0% | 13.3% | 31.6% | 34.1% | 16.1% | 2.7% | - | 3.4 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 20.3% | 32.5% | 27.0% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 2.8 |
| Air ForceAF(0-2) | - | - | 3.8% | 18.8% | 34.5% | 29.4% | 11.8% | 1.7% | 2.7 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 4.3% | 15.9% | 29.6% | 29.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 2.5 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.0% | 6.8% | 21.9% | 34.8% | 27.0% | 8.4% | 1.9 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 38.1% | 28.1% | 7.4% | 1.9 |
| NevadaNEV(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 17.8% | 36.2% | 32.2% | 10.0% | 1.7 |
Data from 2024-10-06