Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W35-14 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W36-7 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L24-27 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:7% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:10% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:11% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:9% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 0.0% | 88.9% |
| 5-2 | 0.4% | 17.6% |
| 4-3 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 3-4 | 21.5% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 38.1% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 7.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Air Force
Utah State
San Diego State
Fresno State
Nevada
San José StateHawai'iCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 7.4%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
39.7%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%
21.4%
<0.1%
11.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06