UNLVRebels

4-1 T1st (1-0) in MWC

Data from 2024-10-06 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

70.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@HoustonHOU	W27-7
2	9/07	vsUtah TechUTU	W72-14
3	9/13	vsKansasKU(N)	W23-20
5	9/28	vsFresno StateFRES	W59-14
6	10/04	vsSyracuseSYR	L41-44
7	10/11	@Utah StateUSU	Win prob:93%
8	10/19	@Oregon StateORST	Win prob:52%
9	10/25	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:53%
11	11/09	@Hawai'iHAW	Win prob:91%
12	11/16	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:90%
13	11/22	@San José StateSJSU	Win prob:54%
14	11/30	vsNevadaNEV	Win prob:95%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-0	20.5%	100.0%
6-1	43.1%	97.1%
5-2	28.7%	27.3%
4-3	6.9%	0.3%
3-4	0.7%	0%
2-5	0.0%	0%
1-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

51.6%

35.6%

10.1%

1.4%

1.2%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Air ForceAF@New MexicoUNM	69.8% (-0.5%)	71.0% (+0.7%)
UNLVUNLV@Utah StateUSU	71.9% (+1.7%)	47.0% (-23.2%)
San Diego StateSDSU@WyomingWYO	71.8% (+1.5%)	68.7% (-1.5%)
Washington StateWSU@Fresno StateFRES	70.4% (+0.1%)	70.2% (-0.1%)
Oregon StateORST@NevadaNEV	70.3% (+0.0%)	70.0% (-0.3%)
San José StateSJSU@Colorado StateCSU	69.5% (-0.7%)	74.3% (+4.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@Hawai'iHAW	69.8% (-0.5%)	76.5% (+6.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

New Mexico

Utah State

Nevada

Colorado State

Hawai'i

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

CCG: 71.9% • Scenario: 93.3%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

10.5%

Any 1 loss

98.0%

32.2%

100.0%

10.0%

100.0%

0.8%

99.8%

0.6%

99.8%

1.0%

99.3%

1.2%

97.2%

9.2%

96.2%

9.4%

Any 2 losses

68.0%

35.7%

100.0%

1.0%

99.9%

1.1%

99.9%

0.7%

99.8%

0.6%

96.8%

8.7%

96.0%

8.8%

90.5%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

84.4%

<0.1%

66.4%

0.1%

63.4%

<0.1%

61.3%

<0.1%

55.3%

0.7%

55.2%

0.9%

53.2%

0.5%

44.7%

0.7%

44.6%

0.9%

44.0%

0.5%

37.4%

1.0%

34.3%

1.0%

10.9%

8.1%

Any 3 losses

26.9%

14.1%

86.0%

<0.1%

77.4%

<0.1%

74.4%

<0.1%

72.3%

<0.1%

66.7%

0.1%

60.7%

<0.1%

58.4%

0.7%

52.8%

0.9%

50.0%

0.6%

49.4%

0.5%

49.3%

0.8%

41.0%

0.5%

36.9%

0.9%

34.9%

0.9%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

10.6%

7.6%

4.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-06 • SportsSimulate.com