Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
69.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:76% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:8% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:77% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:92% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 19.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 36.0% | 98.1% |
| 6-2 | 28.2% | 51.5% |
| 5-3 | 12.3% | 1.8% |
| 4-4 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
99.8%
8.9%100.0%
6.9%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.5%
0.3%98.3%
0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.4%
0.2%Any 2 losses
97.1%
23.6%100.0%
2.2%100.0%
5.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.1%
0.6%99.0%
1.5%98.9%
1.1%98.5%
2.8%98.4%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
2.0%97.8%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.4%
2.0%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
2.3%96.4%
0.2%96.4%
0.2%96.3%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%50.9%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
80.6%
29.5%100.0%
1.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.9%99.6%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.0%
1.3%98.8%
<0.1%98.7%
0.2%98.5%
2.1%98.5%
0.9%98.4%
<0.1%98.2%
0.5%98.2%
0.2%98.2%
1.7%98.0%
0.8%97.9%
<0.1%97.7%
0.2%97.5%
1.8%97.4%
0.3%97.2%
1.6%97.2%
0.2%96.9%
0.7%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
0.6%96.3%
0.3%94.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.4%
0.1%72.4%
<0.1%69.6%
0.3%68.8%
0.2%67.9%
0.6%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.6%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.5%
0.2%62.6%
0.5%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.4%
0.3%58.3%
0.3%58.2%
<0.1%57.9%
0.2%57.2%
0.4%56.4%
<0.1%55.0%
0.4%55.0%
<0.1%55.0%
0.5%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%52.8%
0.5%52.2%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
0.8%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.9%
1.0%43.9%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.2%
0.8%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
0.6%35.2%
0.6%35.1%
0.7%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
54.6%
20.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.4%99.1%
0.6%98.6%
0.1%98.1%
0.5%98.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%97.9%
0.1%97.7%
0.6%97.5%
0.2%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
0.5%97.2%
0.1%96.7%
0.3%95.6%
0.2%94.8%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.5%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.0%
0.2%76.8%
0.2%76.5%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.5%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
0.4%64.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.7%
0.2%62.6%
0.1%62.1%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%59.6%
0.3%59.3%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%58.0%
0.1%57.4%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.7%
0.4%55.6%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%55.2%
0.3%55.1%
0.3%54.3%
0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.7%
0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
0.4%51.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.3%45.9%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%44.8%
0.1%44.1%
0.7%43.6%
<0.1%43.0%
0.7%42.0%
0.8%41.4%
0.2%41.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.1%38.4%
0.5%37.7%
0.6%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.4%
0.3%35.8%
0.2%33.8%
0.6%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.9%
0.2%31.0%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.4%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22