Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
16.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:17% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:51% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.9% | 91.6% |
| 6-2 | 23.9% | 29.6% |
| 5-3 | 31.9% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.8%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.9%
3.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.4%
0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.0%
0.6%91.0%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.8%
0.4%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%88.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.7%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.2%
0.2%17.4%
0.1%10.1%
0.1%Any 3 losses
52.8%
10.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.4%
0.6%93.3%
<0.1%93.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%90.5%
0.4%90.4%
0.5%90.1%
0.6%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.2%
0.3%89.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.6%
0.3%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%45.1%
0.1%43.0%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.4%
0.1%41.7%
0.3%41.6%
0.2%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%38.3%
0.2%38.2%
<0.1%37.6%
0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
0.2%35.3%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%22.7%
0.5%22.0%
0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.3%
0.3%21.1%
<0.1%20.6%
1.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
0.2%17.5%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
0.7%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
33.4%
15.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%96.4%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%90.1%
0.4%90.0%
0.6%87.7%
0.3%86.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.2%
0.3%45.1%
<0.1%44.1%
0.2%43.8%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.7%
0.3%40.6%
<0.1%40.2%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
0.1%39.0%
0.1%38.5%
0.2%38.0%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.6%
0.1%36.4%
0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.4%
0.2%35.4%
0.1%35.3%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.2%
0.1%33.8%
0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.2%32.5%
0.1%31.8%
0.2%31.8%
0.1%31.6%
<0.1%29.9%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.9%
0.5%24.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
0.5%21.3%
0.2%20.6%
1.0%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.7%
1.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
0.6%14.9%
0.1%14.4%
0.8%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.6%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22