Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09
Conference Standings
| T1 |  James MadisonJMU | 6-0 | 8-1 | 96.8% | |
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 5-0 | 7-2 | 44.7% | |
| 3 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 5-1 | 6-3 | 3.2% | |
| 4 |  TroyTROY | 4-1 | 6-3 | 55.3% | |
| 5 |  Arkansas StateARST | 4-2 | 5-5 | - | |
| 6 |  Old DominionODU | 3-2 | 6-3 | <0.1% | |
| 7 |  LouisianaUL | 3-3 | 4-6 | - | |
| T8 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 2-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  MarshallMRSH | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| T10 |  App StateAPP | 1-4 | 4-5 | - | |
| T10 |  South AlabamaUSA | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| T10 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
| T13 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-5 | 3-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 96.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 96.8% (-0.0%) | 96.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 96.8% (+0.0%) | 96.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 92.9% (-3.8%) | 97.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 96.7% (-0.0%) | 97.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 96.8% (+0.0%) | 96.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 92.7% (-4.0%) | 99.7% (+2.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
James MadisonGeorgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 55.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James MadisonGeorgia SouthernCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 55.3%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
James MadisonGeorgia SouthernUL MonroeOld DominionGeorgia StateGeorgia SouthernUL MonroeGeorgia StateSouthern MissGeorgia SouthernData from 2025-11-09
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 74.4% | 13.8% | - | - | 96.8% |
| TroyTROY | - | 100% | 68.9% | 10.8% | - | 55.3% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 71.4% | 38.4% | - | - | 44.7% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | 100% | 0.3% | - | - | 3.2% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | - | - | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% | - | <0.1% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MarshallMRSH | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-09
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(6-0) | 88.3% | 11.3% | 0.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.9 |
| Southern MissUSM(5-0) | 7.0% | 29.8% | 42.9% | 20.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| TroyTROY(4-1) | - | 18.4% | 48.8% | 30.1% | 2.7% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(5-1) | - | 3.0% | 43.3% | 53.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Old DominionODU(3-2) | - | - | 38.3% | 45.6% | 15.1% | 0.9% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| Arkansas StateARST(4-2) | - | - | 20.9% | 50.8% | 28.3% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| LouisianaUL(3-3) | - | - | - | 42.8% | 52.4% | 4.8% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| MarshallMRSH(2-3) | - | - | - | 47.9% | 41.2% | 10.2% | 0.8% | - | - | 4.4 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(2-3) | - | - | - | 3.7% | 25.7% | 48.0% | 22.5% | - | - | 3.1 |
| South AlabamaUSA(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 14.4% | 49.6% | 32.1% | 3.9% | - | 2.7 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 42.1% | 45.2% | 12.2% | 0.5% | 2.3 |
| App StateAPP(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 1.0% | 21.6% | 52.2% | 25.2% | - | 2.0 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 2.0% | 22.9% | 75.0% | - | 1.3 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 2.5% | 23.7% | 73.7% | 0.3 |
Data from 2025-11-09