Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
55.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W21-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W48-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-14 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W35-23 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L10-23 | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:91% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 18.4% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 48.8% | 68.9% |
| 5-3 | 30.1% | 10.8% |
| 4-4 | 2.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.4% (+0.1%) | 54.7% (-0.6%) | |
| 55.0% (-0.3%) | 55.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 56.5% (+1.2%) | 55.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 55.3% (-0.0%) | 55.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 55.4% (+0.1%) | 55.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 55.5% (+0.2%) | 55.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Old Dominion
App State
Georgia State
Southern Miss
Georgia SouthernCCG: 72.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South AlabamaOld Dominion
Coastal CarolinaCCG: 56.0% • Scenario: 22.8%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
18.4%Any 1 loss
100.0%
33.6%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09