Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  James MadisonJMU | 7-0 | 9-1 | 100% | |
| 2 |  Southern MissUSM | 5-1 | 7-3 | 46.0% | |
| 3 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 5-2 | 6-4 | - | |
| T4 |  TroyTROY | 4-2 | 6-4 | 54.0% | |
| T4 |  Arkansas StateARST | 4-2 | 5-5 | - | |
| T4 |  Old DominionODU | 4-2 | 7-3 | - | |
| T7 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T7 |  LouisianaUL | 3-3 | 4-6 | - | |
| T7 |  MarshallMRSH | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| 10 |  South AlabamaUSA | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T11 |  App StateAPP | 1-5 | 4-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Texas StateTXST | 1-5 | 4-6 | - | |
| T11 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-5 | 3-7 | - | |
| 14 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-6 | 1-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 100.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Georgia StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 8.9%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Texas StateJames MadisonTroy
South CarolinaMarshallOld DominionSouth AlabamaArkansas StateLouisianaSouthern Miss+6 more clinching scenarios
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 100% | - | - | 100% |
| TroyTROY | - | - | 100% | 10.1% | 54.0% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | 100% | 55.8% | - | 46.0% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - | - |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | - | - | - |
| MarshallMRSH | - | - | - | - | - |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | - | - | - |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | - | - | - |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(7-0) | 92.2% | 7.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.9 |
| Southern MissUSM(5-1) | - | 18.4% | 49.5% | 32.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Old DominionODU(4-2) | - | - | 60.9% | 36.5% | 2.5% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| TroyTROY(4-2) | - | - | 49.3% | 46.6% | 4.2% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(5-2) | - | - | 7.8% | 92.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Arkansas StateARST(4-2) | - | - | 20.1% | 50.6% | 29.3% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| MarshallMRSH(3-3) | - | - | - | 54.4% | 39.4% | 6.2% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| LouisianaUL(3-3) | - | - | - | 44.2% | 51.3% | 4.5% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(3-3) | - | - | - | 6.5% | 40.6% | 52.9% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| South AlabamaUSA(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 16.9% | 54.3% | 28.9% | - | - | 2.9 |
| Texas StateTXST(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 68.7% | 30.1% | 1.2% | - | 2.7 |
| App StateAPP(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 20.0% | 53.5% | 26.5% | - | 1.9 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 12.1% | 87.6% | - | 1.1 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.7% | 14.8% | 84.5% | 0.2 |
Data from 2025-11-16