TroyTrojans

6-4 T4th (4-2) in SBC

Data from 2025-11-16 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

54.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	W21-17
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W31-24
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	W48-41
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	W37-14
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	W35-23
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	L10-23
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	L0-33
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:91%
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:54%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

if makes the CCG

100.0%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Georgia StateGAST@TroyTROY	53.0% (-0.9%)	54.1% (+0.1%)
UL MonroeULM@Texas StateTXST	53.1% (-0.9%)	54.0% (+0.0%)
Old DominionODU@Georgia SouthernGASO	53.9% (-0.1%)	54.1% (+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@App StateAPP	54.1% (+0.1%)	53.8% (-0.1%)
Washington StateWSU@James MadisonJMU	52.8% (-1.2%)	54.1% (+0.1%)
Southern MissUSM@South AlabamaUSA	54.3% (+0.3%)	53.8% (-0.2%)
LouisianaUL@Arkansas StateARST	54.0% (-0.0%)	54.0% (+0.0%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@South CarolinaSC	54.2% (+0.3%)	54.0% (-0.0%)