Sun Belt Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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26 of 26 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	13.2%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 93.7% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.3%	13.2%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	8.9%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	5.7%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 93.4% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.6%	3.3%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	3.3%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	2.3%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 94.0% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.0%	2.2%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	2.1%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	1.4%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 92.8% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 7.2%	1.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	1.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.7%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.7%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 94.6% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 5.4%	0.7%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.6%
9-0 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Old DominionODU	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 94.0% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.0%	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.3%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.2%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.2%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouthern MissUSM 93.6% James MadisonJMUTroyTROY 6.4%	0.2%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Southern MissUSM TroyTROY	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	0.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	<0.1%
8-1 James MadisonJMU 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Coastal CarolinaCCU Old DominionODU	James MadisonJMUTroyTROY	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Divisional (East vs. West): each division champion is decided by head-to-head → next-highest team → non-divisional common opponents → strength of schedule, then the two champions meet in the CCG

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.