Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23

Big TenConference Standings

T1IndianaIU8-011-099.8%
T1Ohio StOSU8-011-084.3%
T3OregonORE7-110-112.9%
T3MichiganMICH7-19-22.9%
5USCUSC6-28-3-
T6IowaIOWA5-37-4-
T6WashingtonWASH5-38-3-
T8IllinoisILL4-47-4-
T8MinnesotaMINN4-46-5-
T8NebraskaNEB4-47-4-
T8NorthwesternNU4-46-5-
12UCLAUCLA3-53-8-
T13Penn StPSU2-65-6-
T13RutgersRUTG2-65-6-
T13WisconsinWIS2-64-7-
16MarylandMD1-74-7-
T17Michigan StMSU0-83-8-
T17PurduePUR0-82-9-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

184.3%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
212.8%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
32.8%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
40.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
5<0.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
6<0.1%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 99.8%
Game
IndianaCCG OddsAway
IndianaCCG OddsHome
NorthwesternNU@IllinoisILL
99.8%
(-0.0%)		99.9%
(+0.0%)
Ohio StOSU@MichiganMICH
100.0%
(+0.2%)		99.0%
(-0.9%)
IowaIOWA@NebraskaNEB
99.8%
(-0.0%)		99.9%
(+0.0%)
WisconsinWIS@MinnesotaMINN
99.8%
(-0.0%)		99.9%
(+0.0%)
OregonORE@WashingtonWASH
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@USCUSC
100.0%
(+0.1%)		99.8%
(+0.0%)
Penn StPSU@RutgersRUTG
99.8%
(+0.0%)		99.8%
(-0.1%)
MarylandMD@Michigan StMSU
99.8%
(-0.0%)		99.9%
(+0.0%)
IndianaIU@PurduePUR
100.0%
(+0.2%)		83.4%
(-16.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Indiana

Ohio StOhio State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 84.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Indiana

IndianaIndiana

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 99.0%

Ways for Indiana to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

IndianaIndiana
99.0%
Ohio StOhio State
84.3%
IowaIowaUCLAUCLA
2.1%
IllinoisIllinoisWisconsinWisconsinWashingtonWashingtonPenn StPenn StateMichigan StMichigan State
1.8%
UCLAUCLAMichigan StMichigan State
1.1%
IllinoisIllinoisNebraskaNebraskaWisconsinWisconsinWashingtonWashington
1.1%
WisconsinWisconsinUCLAUCLA
1.1%
NorthwesternNorthwesternUCLAUCLA
0.8%
NorthwesternNorthwesternNebraskaNebraskaMinnesotaMinnesotaWashingtonWashington
0.8%
NebraskaNebraskaRutgersRutgersMichigan StMichigan State
0.8%

+11 more clinching scenarios

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-1Overall
IndianaIU100%83.4%99.8%
Ohio StOSU100%0.4%84.3%
OregonORE-15.8%12.9%
MichiganMICH-18.6%2.9%
IllinoisILL---
IowaIOWA---
MarylandMD---
Michigan StMSU---
MinnesotaMINN---
NebraskaNEB---
NorthwesternNU---
Penn StPSU---
PurduePUR---
RutgersRUTG---
UCLAUCLA---
USCUSC---
WashingtonWASH---
WisconsinWIS---

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
IndianaIU(8-0)99.0%1.0%--------9.0
Ohio StOSU(8-0)84.3%15.7%--------8.8
OregonORE(7-1)-81.7%18.3%-------7.8
MichiganMICH(7-1)-15.7%84.3%-------7.2
USCUSC(6-2)--97.2%2.8%------7.0
IowaIOWA(5-3)---76.5%23.5%-----5.8
WashingtonWASH(5-3)---18.3%81.7%-----5.2
IllinoisILL(4-4)----71.5%28.5%----4.7
MinnesotaMINN(4-4)----62.2%37.9%----4.6
NorthwesternNU(4-4)----28.5%71.5%----4.3
NebraskaNEB(4-4)----23.5%76.5%----4.2
UCLAUCLA(3-5)-----2.8%97.2%---3.0
Penn StPSU(2-6)------91.9%8.1%--2.9
WisconsinWIS(2-6)------37.9%62.2%--2.4
RutgersRUTG(2-6)------8.1%91.9%--2.1
MarylandMD(1-7)-------58.8%41.2%-1.6
Michigan StMSU(0-8)--------41.2%58.8%0.4
PurduePUR(0-8)--------1.0%99.0%0.0

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com