Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
93.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-27 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L7-29 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W44-13 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W26-14 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 89.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 11.0% | 40.0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+6.6%) | 89.1% (-4.3%) | |
| 93.3% (-0.1%) | 93.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 93.3% (-0.1%) | 93.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 93.6% (+0.2%) | 93.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 93.4% (-0.0%) | 93.9% (+0.5%) | |
| 93.5% (+0.1%) | 93.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.0% (-53.3%) | 100.0% (+6.6%) | |
| 93.4% (-0.0%) | 93.7% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ArizonaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 39.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 89.0%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
BYUArizona
Kansas
West VirginiaData from 2025-11-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
89.0%
40.0%
11.0%Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23