Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23
Conference Standings
| 1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 6-1 | 9-2 | 54.1% | |
| T2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 5-2 | 7-4 | 68.0% | |
| T2 |  New MexicoUNM | 5-2 | 8-3 | 49.2% | |
| T2 |  UNLVUNLV | 5-2 | 9-2 | 28.4% | |
| T5 |  Utah StateUSU | 4-3 | 6-5 | 0.3% | |
| T5 |  Fresno StateFRES | 4-3 | 7-4 | - | |
| T5 |  Hawai'iHAW | 4-3 | 7-4 | - | |
| T8 |  Air ForceAF | 2-5 | 3-8 | - | |
| T8 |  NevadaNEV | 2-5 | 3-8 | - | |
| T8 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-5 | 3-8 | - | |
| T8 |  WyomingWYO | 2-5 | 4-7 | - | |
| 12 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-6 | 2-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 68.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 70.9% (+2.9%) | 65.1% (-2.8%) | |
| 100.0% (+32.0%) | 8.1% (-59.9%) | |
| 67.7% (-0.2%) | 68.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 68.3% (+0.3%) | 66.7% (-1.3%) | |
| 65.3% (-2.7%) | 80.0% (+12.0%) | |
| 68.1% (+0.2%) | 67.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 65.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 65.1%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Boise StateSan Diego StateFresno StateNevadaSan Diego StateColorado StateNevadaSan Diego StateNevadaWyomingData from 2025-11-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | - | 100% | 8.1% | 68.0% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 9.9% | - | 54.1% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 96.7% | - | 49.2% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 34.7% | - | 28.4% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | - |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | - | - |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego StateSDSU(6-1) | 49.1% | 50.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| UNLVUNLV(5-2) | - | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| Boise StateBOIS(5-2) | - | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| New MexicoUNM(5-2) | - | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Fresno StateFRES(4-3) | - | - | 80.6% | 19.4% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(4-3) | - | - | 74.7% | 25.3% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Utah StateUSU(4-3) | - | - | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| Air ForceAF(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | 2.6 |
| WyomingWYO(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | 2.3 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | 2.2 |
| NevadaNEV(2-5) | - | - | - | - | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | 2.2 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 35.3% | 64.7% | 1.4 |
Data from 2025-11-23