UNLVRebels

9-2 T2nd (5-2) in MWC

Data from 2025-11-23 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

28.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	W31-17
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	W51-48
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	L31-56
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	L35-40
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	W42-10
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	W29-26
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	W38-10
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:82%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-2	81.8%	34.7%
5-3	18.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

if makes the CCG

50.8%

49.2%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
San Diego StateSDSU@New MexicoUNM	28.5% (+0.1%)	28.3% (-0.1%)
Boise StateBOIS@Utah StateUSU	0.0% (-28.4%)	81.5% (+53.1%)
Air ForceAF@Colorado StateCSU	28.5% (+0.1%)	28.3% (-0.1%)
Fresno StateFRES@San José StateSJSU	28.4% (-0.0%)	28.5% (+0.1%)
UNLVUNLV@NevadaNEV	34.7% (+6.3%)	0.0% (-28.4%)
WyomingWYO@Hawai'iHAW	28.5% (+0.1%)	28.4% (-0.0%)

Utah State

UNLV

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 28.4%

Utah State

UNLV

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 28.4%

Utah State

UNLV

28.4%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

34.7%

81.8%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com