Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-23
Conference Standings
| 1 |  James MadisonJMU | 7-0 | 10-1 | 100% | |
| T2 |  TroyTROY | 5-2 | 7-4 | 50.4% | |
| T2 |  Southern MissUSM | 5-2 | 7-4 | 49.5% | |
| T2 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 5-2 | 6-5 | - | |
| T2 |  Old DominionODU | 5-2 | 8-3 | - | |
| T6 |  Arkansas StateARST | 4-3 | 5-6 | - | |
| T6 |  LouisianaUL | 4-3 | 5-6 | - | |
| T8 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 3-4 | 5-6 | - | |
| T8 |  MarshallMRSH | 3-4 | 5-6 | - | |
| T8 |  South AlabamaUSA | 3-4 | 4-7 | - | |
| T11 |  App StateAPP | 2-5 | 5-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Texas StateTXST | 2-5 | 5-6 | - | |
| 13 |  UL MonroeULM | 1-6 | 3-8 | - | |
| 14 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-7 | 1-10 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-23
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 100.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 100.0% (+0.0%) | 100.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 50.4%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Old DominionJames MadisonLouisianaMarshallTexas StateTroyArkansas StateApp StateSouthern MissSouth Alabama+4 more clinching scenarios
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 100% | - | 100% |
| TroyTROY | - | - | 100% | 50.4% |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | 100% | 49.5% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | - |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - |
| LouisianaUL | - | - | - | - |
| MarshallMRSH | - | - | - | - |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | - | - |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | - | - |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-23
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(7-0) | 95.1% | 4.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.0 |
| Old DominionODU(5-2) | - | - | 95.1% | 4.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| TroyTROY(5-2) | - | - | 50.4% | 49.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Southern MissUSM(5-2) | - | - | 49.5% | 50.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(5-2) | - | - | 4.9% | 95.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| LouisianaUL(4-3) | - | - | - | 91.1% | 8.9% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| Arkansas StateARST(4-3) | - | - | - | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| MarshallMRSH(3-4) | - | - | - | - | 79.5% | 20.5% | - | - | - | 3.8 |
| South AlabamaUSA(3-4) | - | - | - | - | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | - | - | 3.2 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(3-4) | - | - | - | - | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | - | - | 3.2 |
| Texas StateTXST(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 78.9% | 21.1% | - | - | 2.8 |
| App StateAPP(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | - | 2.5 |
| UL MonroeULM(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.9% | 91.1% | - | 1.1 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4.9% | 95.1% | 0.0 |
Data from 2025-11-23