TroyTrojans

7-4 T2nd (5-2) in SBC

Data from 2025-11-23 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

50.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	W21-17
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W31-24
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	W48-41
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	W37-14
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	W35-23
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	L10-23
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	L0-33
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	W31-19
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:50%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-2	50.4%	100.0%
5-3	49.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

if makes the CCG

100.0%

Data from 2025-11-23 • SportsSimulate.com

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TroyTROY@Southern MissUSM	100.0% (+49.5%)	0.0% (-50.4%)
UL MonroeULM@LouisianaUL	51.0% (+0.5%)	50.4% (-0.1%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@MarshallMRSH	50.5% (+0.1%)	50.4% (-0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@Old DominionODU	51.6% (+1.2%)	50.4% (-0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@App StateAPP	50.5% (+0.1%)	50.3% (-0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@Coastal CarolinaCCU	50.5% (+0.1%)	48.8% (-1.7%)
South AlabamaUSA@Texas StateTXST	51.1% (+0.7%)	50.3% (-0.2%)