Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W44-26 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-19 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.6% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 8.2% | 45.9% |
| 5-3 | 30.8% | 1.6% |
| 4-4 | 42.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 17.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (+0.2%) | 4.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.1%) | 5.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.2%) | 7.5% (+2.5%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.2%) | 5.2% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Wyoming
Nevada
Fresno StateCCG: 8.6% • Scenario: 0.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 7.5% • Scenario: 8.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.5%
0.6%Any 1 loss
45.9%
8.2%85.7%
0.5%
85.2%
1.4%
45.6%
1.5%
30.7%
4.8%Any 2 losses
1.6%
30.8%7.4%
1.1%2.6%
1.1%2.1%
3.5%2.1%
3.3%1.6%
10.8%0.7%
11.0%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19