Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 3-0 | 5-2 | 88.8% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-0 | 5-1 | 43.7% | |
| 3 |  Hawai'iHAW | 3-1 | 6-2 | 4.9% | |
| T4 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-1 | 6-1 | 50.2% | |
| T4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 2-1 | 5-2 | 6.4% | |
| T4 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-1 | 4-3 | 3.0% | |
| T7 |  New MexicoUNM | 1-2 | 4-3 | 1.1% | |
| T7 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-2 | 2-5 | 1.1% | |
| T7 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-2 | 2-5 | 0.6% | |
| T7 |  WyomingWYO | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0.3% | |
| 11 |  Air ForceAF | 1-4 | 2-5 | - | |
| 12 |  NevadaNEV | 0-3 | 1-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 88.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 88.3% (-0.5%) | 89.1% (+0.3%) | |
| 89.1% (+0.3%) | 88.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 90.5% (+1.7%) | 68.7% (-20.1%) | |
| 88.2% (-0.6%) | 89.7% (+0.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New MexicoColorado StateBoise StateFresno StateCCG: 92.0% • Scenario: 11.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 90.5% • Scenario: 92.0%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.9% | 60.6% | 4.3% | 88.8% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 84.3% | 35.8% | 2.5% | 50.2% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 92.5% | 45.7% | 3.7% | 43.7% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 97.6% | 49.5% | 2.6% | 6.4% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 99.5% | 45.9% | 1.6% | 4.9% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | 99.3% | 52.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | 74.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 19.5% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | 86.1% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | 21.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-19
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(3-0) | 34.1% | 43.1% | 18.8% | 3.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.1 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-1) | - | 41.9% | 40.5% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.2 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-0) | 5.9% | 23.0% | 34.1% | 25.1% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% | - | - | 5.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(3-1) | - | 0.6% | 8.2% | 30.8% | 42.5% | 17.9% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| Fresno StateFRES(2-1) | - | 0.9% | 9.5% | 29.0% | 36.9% | 20.0% | 3.7% | - | - | 4.2 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-2) | - | - | 5.4% | 25.4% | 36.9% | 24.1% | 7.3% | 0.9% | - | 3.9 |
| Utah StateUSU(2-1) | - | 0.3% | 4.2% | 20.3% | 39.3% | 30.3% | 5.5% | - | - | 3.9 |
| New MexicoUNM(1-2) | - | - | 1.3% | 10.8% | 29.8% | 35.1% | 19.1% | 3.9% | - | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(1-2) | - | - | 1.1% | 9.1% | 28.4% | 37.1% | 20.8% | 3.5% | - | 3.2 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-2) | - | - | 0.4% | 5.0% | 21.0% | 37.4% | 28.4% | 7.8% | - | 2.9 |
| Air ForceAF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 6.4% | 29.8% | 43.6% | 20.1% | - | 2.2 |
| NevadaNEV(0-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 17.7% | 41.8% | 36.6% | 0.9 |
Data from 2025-10-19