Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
50.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W38-31 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-17 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W51-48 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L31-56 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:86% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 41.9% | 84.3% |
| 6-2 | 40.5% | 35.8% |
| 5-3 | 14.8% | 2.5% |
| 4-4 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 50.9% (+0.7%) | 49.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 50.2% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.4% (-0.7%) | 58.7% (+8.6%) | |
| 44.9% (-5.2%) | 58.3% (+8.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico
Colorado State
Nevada
Fresno StateCCG: 65.2% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Fresno StateCCG: 58.3% • Scenario: 39.3%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
84.3%
41.9%Any 1 loss
35.8%
40.5%40.5%
4.7%38.9%
14.5%36.4%
8.5%
34.6%
7.0%
25.0%
5.8%Any 2 losses
2.5%
14.8%4.4%
1.6%4.3%
1.0%3.4%
2.9%3.0%
0.7%2.5%
2.4%1.7%
0.6%1.6%
1.5%1.1%
1.9%1.1%
0.9%1.0%
1.2%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19