Sacramento StateHornets
0-0 T1st (0-0) in MAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/30 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 11/04 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 11/11 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.0% | 95.8% |
| 6-2 | 17.6% | 52.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.2% | 3.6% |
| 4-4 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 23.4% (+6.5%) | 8.1% (-8.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 23.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.2%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
86.1%
2.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.6%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%92.9%
0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
67.5%
7.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.1%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%97.0%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%96.3%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.4%
0.3%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.1%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.6%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.5%
0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.1%
0.1%38.8%
0.1%38.1%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.6%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.0%
0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.6%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
42.4%
14.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.6%
<0.1%97.2%
0.1%97.0%
0.2%96.4%
0.2%95.6%
0.2%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.6%
0.3%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.2%
0.2%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.8%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.6%
<0.1%61.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%59.1%
0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%56.8%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%55.0%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.8%
0.2%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.2%
0.2%53.1%
0.2%53.0%
0.2%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%48.9%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.8%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.4%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
0.1%40.8%
0.4%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.8%
0.1%39.8%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.6%
0.3%38.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.8%
0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.8%
0.4%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26