Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-27
Conference Standings
| 1 |  LouisianaUL | 3-0 | 6-1 | 18.1% | |
| T2 |  South AlabamaUSA | 3-1 | 4-4 | 32.1% | |
| T2 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 3-1 | 5-3 | 25.3% | |
| T2 |  Old DominionODU | 3-1 | 4-4 | 14.0% | |
| T2 |  Arkansas StateARST | 3-1 | 5-3 | 4.0% | |
| T2 |  UL MonroeULM | 3-1 | 5-2 | 1.0% | |
| T7 |  Texas StateTXST | 2-1 | 4-3 | 44.8% | |
| T7 |  MarshallMRSH | 2-1 | 4-3 | 1.9% | |
| 9 |  James MadisonJMU | 2-2 | 6-2 | 50.0% | |
| 10 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 1-2 | 4-3 | 6.8% | |
| 11 |  App StateAPP | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1.9% | |
| T12 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-4 | 2-5 | - | |
| T12 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
| T12 |  TroyTROY | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 50.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 50.4% (+0.4%) | 49.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 50.1% (+0.1%) | 49.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 49.9% (-0.1%) | 50.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 50.4% (+0.4%) | 49.3% (-0.7%) | |
| 49.6% (-0.4%) | 50.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 50.0% (+0.0%) | 50.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LouisianaUL MonroeGeorgia SouthernOld DominionGeorgia StateCoastal CarolinaCCG: 64.5% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Old DominionCCG: 50.4% • Scenario: 64.3%
Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | - | - | 76.2% | 10.9% | - | 50.0% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | 100% | 51.1% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 44.8% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | 91.8% | 10.3% | 0.3% | - | 32.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 89.6% | 71.9% | 29.2% | 4.9% | 25.3% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 35.0% | 2.2% | - | - | 18.1% |
| Old DominionODU | - | 89.9% | 18.6% | 4.3% | - | 14.0% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | 38.6% | 18.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | 28.6% | 12.2% | 5.6% | 0.3% | 4.0% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | 98.9% | 22.9% | 1.9% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | 75.1% | 5.3% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 1.9% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | 70.5% | 18.7% | 1.9% | - | 1.0% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TroyTROY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-27
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL(3-0) | 7.0% | 29.3% | 39.3% | 19.9% | 4.2% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| South AlabamaUSA(3-1) | - | 29.7% | 46.0% | 21.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| Texas StateTXST(2-1) | - | 17.9% | 46.2% | 29.1% | 6.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.7 |
| James MadisonJMU(2-2) | - | - | 60.8% | 33.0% | 5.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.5 |
| Old DominionODU(3-1) | - | 6.7% | 34.0% | 39.5% | 17.3% | 2.6% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(3-1) | - | 1.5% | 15.3% | 38.5% | 34.5% | 10.2% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| MarshallMRSH(2-1) | - | 1.1% | 15.2% | 40.2% | 33.2% | 9.4% | 0.9% | - | - | 4.6 |
| Arkansas StateARST(3-1) | - | 1.2% | 12.0% | 36.0% | 38.6% | 12.2% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| UL MonroeULM(3-1) | - | 0.2% | 3.0% | 18.0% | 43.2% | 35.6% | - | - | - | 3.9 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-2) | - | - | 3.7% | 18.5% | 33.9% | 29.7% | 12.2% | 2.0% | - | 3.7 |
| TroyTROY(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 7.8% | 33.7% | 40.7% | 16.5% | 1.4% | 2.3 |
| App StateAPP(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.5% | 6.5% | 26.6% | 42.5% | 23.9% | - | 2.2 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.1% | 3.5% | 27.6% | 47.4% | 21.4% | 1.1 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 28.6% | 67.2% | 0.4 |
Data from 2024-10-27