Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L14-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-49 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-37 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L23-24 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W35-20 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:32% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:9% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 75.1% |
| 6-2 | 15.2% | 5.3% |
| 5-3 | 40.2% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 33.2% | 0.1% |
| 3-5 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0% (+0.1%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.1%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
UL Monroe
Georgia Southern
App State
UConn
Coastal CarolinaCCG: 6.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
App StateUConnCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 26.8%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
75.1%
1.1%Any 1 loss
5.3%
15.2%
80.8%
0.2%76.4%
0.3%
10.1%
2.3%3.5%
0.7%
1.2%
11.6%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27