UL MonroeWarhawks

5-2 T2nd (3-1) in SBC

Data from 2024-10-27 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	W13-9
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	W21-19
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	W38-21
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	L17-46
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:20%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:14%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:9%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:35%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:19%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0.2%	70.5%
6-2	3.0%	18.7%
5-3	18.0%	1.9%
4-4	43.2%	0%
3-5	35.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.9%

26.5%

11.8%

6.9%

2.0%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
LouisianaUL@Texas StateTXST	1.1% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@MarshallMRSH	1.0% (-0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@South AlabamaUSA	1.0% (-0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
Old DominionODU@App StateAPP	1.0% (-0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
Georgia StateGAST@UConnCONN	1.0% (-0.0%)	1.1% (+0.0%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TroyTROY	1.0% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Texas State

UL Monroe

Georgia Southern

App State

UConn

Troy

CCG: 2.3% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Louisiana

Marshall

South Alabama

UConn

CCG: 1.3% • Scenario: 17.5%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

58.3%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

54.2%

0.3%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.3%

0.2%

15.8%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

15.1%

3.6%

62.6%

0.7%

20.2%

0.1%

14.5%

0.3%

2.8%

0.7%

1.8%

0.3%

1.7%

0.4%

0.7%

1.0%

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-27 • SportsSimulate.com