Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-24 | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 7.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 29.3% | 35.0% |
| 6-2 | 39.3% | 2.2% |
| 5-3 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 49.1% (+30.9%) | 2.7% (-15.4%) | |
| 18.1% (-0.0%) | 18.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.4%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.2% (+0.0%) | 18.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.3% (+0.1%) | 18.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.4% (+0.2%) | 18.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
UL Monroe
South Alabama
App State
Georgia State
Coastal CarolinaCCG: 57.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 49.1% • Scenario: 33.3%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.0%Any 1 loss
35.0%
29.3%
100.0%
2.8%95.2%
1.7%40.3%
9.4%
40.2%
1.2%
11.3%
14.2%Any 2 losses
6.8%
12.6%64.6%
0.7%5.2%
3.7%3.7%
5.5%3.1%
0.5%0.8%
2.3%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27