Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE6-09-093.2%
T1IndianaIU6-09-023.5%
T3Ohio StOSU4-17-169.1%
T3Penn StPSU4-17-114.2%
T5IowaIOWA4-26-3<0.1%
T5MinnesotaMINN4-26-3<0.1%
T7IllinoisILL3-36-3-
T7MichiganMICH3-35-4-
T7WashingtonWASH3-35-4-
T7WisconsinWIS3-35-4-
T11Michigan StMSU2-44-5-
T11NebraskaNEB2-45-4-
T11NorthwesternNU2-44-5-
T11UCLAUCLA2-43-5-
15USCUSC2-54-5-
T16MarylandMD1-44-4-
T16RutgersRUTG1-44-4-
18PurduePUR0-51-7-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

162.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
222.8%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
37.8%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
46.1%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
50.4%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
60.3%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
7<0.1%
IndianaIU
vs
IOWAIowa
8<0.1%
IowaIOWA
vs
OREOregon
9<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN
vs
OSUOhio St
10<0.1%
IowaIOWA
vs
OSUOhio St
11-
MinnesotaMINN
vs
OREOregon
12-
IndianaIU
vs
MINNMinnesota

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 93.2%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
IowaIOWA@UCLAUCLA
93.2%
(+0.0%)		93.0%
(-0.2%)
MichiganMICH@IndianaIU
95.3%
(+2.1%)		92.3%
(-0.9%)
MinnesotaMINN@RutgersRUTG
92.3%
(-0.8%)		95.1%
(+1.9%)
MarylandMD@OregonORE
59.4%
(-33.8%)		94.2%
(+1.0%)
PurduePUR@Ohio StOSU
98.7%
(+5.5%)		93.1%
(-0.1%)
WashingtonWASH@Penn StPSU
98.9%
(+5.7%)		92.0%
(-1.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

UCLAUCLAPurduePurdue

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregonWashingtonWashington

CCG: 99.3% • Scenario: 16.5%

Ways for Oregon to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

UCLAUCLAMichiganMichiganOregonOregonWashingtonWashington
0.9%
UCLAUCLAMichiganMichiganRutgersRutgersWashingtonWashington
0.3%
MichiganMichiganPurduePurduePenn StPenn State
0.2%
UCLAUCLAPurduePurdue
0.2%
MichiganMichiganMinnesotaMinnesotaPurduePurdue
0.2%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
OregonORE100%72.4%10.5%93.2%
Ohio StOSU-100%5.4%69.1%
IndianaIU100%15.8%0.2%23.5%
Penn StPSU-23.0%<0.1%14.2%
IowaIOWA--<0.1%<0.1%
MinnesotaMINN--0.2%<0.1%
IllinoisILL----
MarylandMD----
MichiganMICH----
Michigan StMSU----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
USCUSC----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(6-0)78.7%19.8%1.5%<0.1%------8.8
IndianaIU(6-0)13.7%61.7%24.2%0.4%------7.9
Ohio StOSU(4-1)-67.5%29.0%3.4%0.1%0.0%----7.6
Penn StPSU(4-1)-61.5%32.8%5.4%0.3%<0.1%----7.6
IowaIOWA(4-2)--59.1%34.4%6.2%0.3%----6.5
MinnesotaMINN(4-2)--5.2%31.9%47.5%15.3%----5.3
IllinoisILL(3-3)---29.4%45.1%22.1%3.4%---5.0
WisconsinWIS(3-3)---4.9%42.7%41.6%10.8%---4.4
MichiganMICH(3-3)---3.2%30.8%58.8%7.2%---4.3
WashingtonWASH(3-3)---1.3%19.1%67.0%12.6%---4.1
USCUSC(2-5)-----71.4%26.5%2.1%--3.7
Michigan StMSU(2-4)----10.5%45.2%37.6%6.7%--3.6
UCLAUCLA(2-4)----0.6%8.2%36.8%54.4%--2.5
NorthwesternNU(2-4)----0.1%5.7%42.1%52.1%--2.5
NebraskaNEB(2-4)----0.3%6.5%38.0%55.1%--2.5
RutgersRUTG(1-4)----1.6%11.5%31.8%38.3%16.9%-2.4
MarylandMD(1-4)----<0.1%1.2%17.5%58.1%23.2%-2.0
PurduePUR(0-5)-----0.0%<0.1%1.1%23.1%75.8%0.3

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com