Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
93.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W24-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W37-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-14 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W32-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-0 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W38-9 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W38-17 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 78.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 19.8% | 72.4% |
| 7-2 | 1.5% | 10.5% |
| 6-3 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 93.2% (+0.0%) | 93.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 95.3% (+2.1%) | 92.3% (-0.9%) | |
| 92.3% (-0.8%) | 95.1% (+1.9%) | |
| 59.4% (-33.8%) | 94.2% (+1.0%) | |
| 98.7% (+5.5%) | 93.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 98.9% (+5.7%) | 92.0% (-1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
PurdueCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oregon
WashingtonCCG: 99.3% • Scenario: 16.5%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
UCLA
MichiganOregonWashingtonUCLAMichigan
RutgersWashingtonMichiganPurdue
Penn StateUCLAPurdueMichigan
MinnesotaPurdueData from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
78.7%Any 1 loss
72.4%
19.8%
72.5%
10.2%
72.5%
2.2%72.2%
7.4%Any 2 losses
10.5%
1.5%12.7%
0.3%11.0%
0.9%5.2%
0.2%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03