Big Ten Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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35 of 35 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	9.3%
8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 76.4% Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 23.5%	2.3%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.7%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.5%
9-0 IndianaIU OregonORE 8-1 Penn StatePSU	IndianaIUOregonORE	0.4%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.3%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 76.7% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 23.3%	0.3%
8-1 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.2%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	0.1%
9-0 IndianaIU 8-1 OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 83.6% IndianaIUPenn StatePSU 16.4%	0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 95.2% IndianaIUOregonORE 4.8%	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 92.9% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 7.1%	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 8-1 Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU 7-2 IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	IndianaIUOhio StateOSU	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 88.6% IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 4.5% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 4.5%	<0.1%
9-0 IndianaIU 7-2 IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	IndianaIUOhio StateOSU	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU 7-2 IndianaIU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 82.9% IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 14.3% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 2.9%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 IndianaIU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 88.9% IndianaIUOregonORE 11.1%	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 52.9% IowaIOWAOregonORE 35.3% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 11.8%	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	OregonOREPenn StatePSU	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 60.0% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 40.0%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU MinnesotaMINN Ohio StateOSU Penn StatePSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
9-0 IndianaIU 7-2 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOhio StateOSU 93.3% IndianaIUOregonORE 6.7%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU IowaIOWA Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%
8-1 Ohio StateOSU OregonORE Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Ohio StateOSUOregonORE 66.7% Ohio StateOSUPenn StatePSU 33.3%	<0.1%
8-1 Penn StatePSU 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU OregonORE	OregonOREPenn StatePSU	<0.1%
9-0 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Penn StatePSU	CCG participants not 100% certain IndianaIUOregonORE 66.7% OregonOREPenn StatePSU 33.3%	<0.1%
8-1 OregonORE 7-2 IndianaIU Ohio StateOSU	Ohio StateOSUOregonORE	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → Common conference opponents → Record against highest-placed opponent → Next-highest, etc.

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.