Conference USA Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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18 of 18 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	10.8%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	6.0%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	5.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	3.5%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	2.1%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 52.1% Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 47.9%	1.7%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	1.3%
9-0 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 61.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 38.2%	1.0%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 54.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 23.1% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 22.6%	1.0%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 34.0% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 33.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 33.0%	0.8%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 59.3% Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 30.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 10.6%	0.8%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 54.2% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 45.8%	0.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 33.8% Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 33.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 32.9%	0.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	0.4%
8-1 Sam HoustonSHSU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 61.3% Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 38.7%	0.4%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU	0.2%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 34.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 33.6% LibertyLIBSam HoustonSHSU 32.2%	0.1%
7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank → Computer rankings composite → Academic Progress Rate

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.